The United Kingdom and the EU - 'Becoming like Norway'

One of the more interesting conversations regarding the EU focussed on us 'becoming like Norway'. The reasons for this apparent desire to become a Scandinavian state rather than another star on the US flag or a federal member of the EU interested me greatly, so I asked them to tell me more.

And they did.

Apparently leaving the EU and being like Norway would save us 'billions' and because 'everyone' would want to trade with us our exports would rise and we would, once more, become a sovereign nation.

To become like Norway would mean that we have negotiated trade agreements such that we would have continued access to the single market that is the EU, but of course that's not a done deal and 'negotiate' is an interesting word in this context. But if Norway can do it, why can't we - perhaps there is mileage in this tack.

Another cherry on the cake is the fact that Norway, being outside the EU but trading with them is not subject to EU laws on matters of justice or home affairs and they are no bound by the agricultural policies of the EU laws on areas such as agriculture, justice and home affairs - all of which adds to the positives regarding this proposal.

But of course there's always another side of the debate and it seems that were we to leave we would still be bound by most of the EU laws and directives because we are trading with the  EU but would have no ability to influence them - they would merely be handed down to us.

Not only that but  the ECJ and ECHR (European Court of Juestice and the European Court of Human Rights) would still be exactly as they were with regard to laws and judgements as they are now with us as members of the EU because they are nothing to do with the EU! This means that pretty much all of  the claimed regained sovereignty benefits would be in people's heads and hearts rather than something tangible and concrete - and my conversant's claim that, "We would be free from the working time directive" is also not true either!

Superficially this 'becoming like Norway' thing sounds like a win-win situation but of course that's because of the superficial! Once we get into it we find that we will still need to negotiate new trade deals and I have a nasty feeling that many of the EU nations who have to tolerate and buy from us now might just be a little tardy and perhaps a lot obstructive with regard to terms - after all, there is the US-like issue of protectionism to be considered and there are many European manufacturers keen to rape our export market with regard to replacing them with their own EU manufactured goods.

As for sovereignty, this I fear comes at a price for, outside of the EU, we become less of an important partner for the US in terms of NATO and the like and we will perhaps be signing up to become equally important and influential as Norway - not something the xenophobes and jingoistic post- empire little Britain types would relish I'm sure.

So whilst liking this as a proposal I have to say that we won't be gaining much in the real sovereignty stake but might be losing more as we confirm our small offshore island status to the rest of the world. Let's not kid ourselves regarding 'special status' and 'importer of choice' positioning - as much as I dislike the EU, we are in it and are an influential part of it (some Europeans I know say we (and Germany even more so) are too powerful) and to lose that might be to enter a one-way street to anonymity and the acceptance that neither EU or Commonwealth or the States have much time for us.

Better to be small and insignificant rather than to exist as part of Europe?

Oh yeah, seems immigration, which is what the majority of those who want to leave try to hide as being their real reason for an exit, would decrease - but only because no one would want to come to our piddling little island - so that's another win for the xenophobes innit?

Not as straightforward as I'd like all the EU stuff - two sides to everything as usual and the posturing, personalities and lies aren't helping us :-(

PS the same pretty much applies to becoming like Switzerland and other places - and since we stuffed EFTA when Sailor Ted (Heath) conned us into Europe, not sure the kettle's on there either!

Sadly all I've seen so far, to be brutal, is xenophobia and closet racism neatly packaged as being about issues over sovereignty, borders and trade - all getting tiresome.

The United Kingdom and the EU - Going it alone and trading with others!

A real challenge for me has come in the shape of those who reckon that life as an independent nation would be one of the greatest boons those of us left on these shores might have. "If we leave the EU then we can choose who we trade with. " people tell me - not only that but they are convinced that should we leave the EU then Commonwealth nations, America and loads of other nations (including EU members would be falling over themselves to buy from us.

But is this an accurate position to occupy?

LEAVE

If we were to leave the EU then the UK would merely need to negotiate trade agreements with nations (and even EU member states) to trade with them in a mutually beneficial way - and, as under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, we would have two years to negotiate a new agreement on trade, we would be able to continue exactly as we were when we were in Europe with regard to EU member states - so we would lose nothing and gain our own sovereignty. We cannot lose.

And of course the Commonwealth, America and other nations outside of the EU would be keen to arrange trade agreements with us so we'd have the best of it everywhere. We'd be like Norway and they are doing alright out of it!

STAY
"Wait a minute," says the 'stay' side of the argument, "What makes you think the US or the Commonwealth will be that keen to make trade deals. Obama said that that wouldn't happen anytime soon!"

And you know what, they are right. In fact, it seems Article 50 comes into effect when we sign on the line to leave (not when we think we need it to come into effect) and so, from signing to agreements, we have but 24 months of continuing as we were (and if that's good for us, why are we leaving?) and then we would need a new agreement in place - which surely wouldn't be as beneficial as being a member nation - it it was, where's the benefit in joining anyway?

Should no agreement be made then we would be subject to the agreed World Trade Organisation's (WTO) tariffs and this would mean that we would be facing an additional bill somewhere around 2% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which in real terms means something around £7.5 billion - which suddenly makes leaving rather unattractive - in fact it means that what we have saved will be spent just compensating for the exit.

And then we might just find that new regulations and 'Buy European' campaigns, benefits for EU member states, discounts and other 'anti-UK' trade measures might see us well and truly becoming the poor man in the area. Still, on the bright side, rather than see economic migrants coming to our shores, we'd probably be exporting them!

Seems to me that the potential of leaving so we can stop sending money to Europe so we can compensate out manufacturing and exporting folk (so where's the money for the NHS coming from if we've already committed it in this area?) is foolish. Once we are out the EU can create new legislation and  impose demands upon us that we will have no say in - and will potentially leave us hamstrung.

I'm beginning to think that I'd rather be an effective member of the EU than a new 'third world nation' just off the coast of the world looking to live off of handouts and calling in old relationships (which might confirm that the days of Empire don't have the legacy we think  they have)!