The United Kingdom and the EU - Going it alone and trading with others!

A real challenge for me has come in the shape of those who reckon that life as an independent nation would be one of the greatest boons those of us left on these shores might have. "If we leave the EU then we can choose who we trade with. " people tell me - not only that but they are convinced that should we leave the EU then Commonwealth nations, America and loads of other nations (including EU members would be falling over themselves to buy from us.

But is this an accurate position to occupy?

LEAVE

If we were to leave the EU then the UK would merely need to negotiate trade agreements with nations (and even EU member states) to trade with them in a mutually beneficial way - and, as under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, we would have two years to negotiate a new agreement on trade, we would be able to continue exactly as we were when we were in Europe with regard to EU member states - so we would lose nothing and gain our own sovereignty. We cannot lose.

And of course the Commonwealth, America and other nations outside of the EU would be keen to arrange trade agreements with us so we'd have the best of it everywhere. We'd be like Norway and they are doing alright out of it!

STAY
"Wait a minute," says the 'stay' side of the argument, "What makes you think the US or the Commonwealth will be that keen to make trade deals. Obama said that that wouldn't happen anytime soon!"

And you know what, they are right. In fact, it seems Article 50 comes into effect when we sign on the line to leave (not when we think we need it to come into effect) and so, from signing to agreements, we have but 24 months of continuing as we were (and if that's good for us, why are we leaving?) and then we would need a new agreement in place - which surely wouldn't be as beneficial as being a member nation - it it was, where's the benefit in joining anyway?

Should no agreement be made then we would be subject to the agreed World Trade Organisation's (WTO) tariffs and this would mean that we would be facing an additional bill somewhere around 2% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which in real terms means something around £7.5 billion - which suddenly makes leaving rather unattractive - in fact it means that what we have saved will be spent just compensating for the exit.

And then we might just find that new regulations and 'Buy European' campaigns, benefits for EU member states, discounts and other 'anti-UK' trade measures might see us well and truly becoming the poor man in the area. Still, on the bright side, rather than see economic migrants coming to our shores, we'd probably be exporting them!

Seems to me that the potential of leaving so we can stop sending money to Europe so we can compensate out manufacturing and exporting folk (so where's the money for the NHS coming from if we've already committed it in this area?) is foolish. Once we are out the EU can create new legislation and  impose demands upon us that we will have no say in - and will potentially leave us hamstrung.

I'm beginning to think that I'd rather be an effective member of the EU than a new 'third world nation' just off the coast of the world looking to live off of handouts and calling in old relationships (which might confirm that the days of Empire don't have the legacy we think  they have)!

Terrorist Attacks - an exercise in Selectivity?

The awful happenings in Brussels yesterday has seen people changing their avatars to include the colours of the Belgian flag in support for them in the face of acts of terror against an innocent people.

In fact the Church of England even offered a public prayer for Brussels:

The same prayer was offered up and placed in the media when Paris saw terrorism hit on the 7th January 2016.

Sadly though - on the 13th March 2016 - Thankfully thoughwhen terrorist attacks in Ankara claimed the lives of 37 people and saw 125 injured - the outcry, the appearance of people standing with this nation and prayers being offered up were nowhere to be found.

Four days earlier, the Church of England offered up many prayers (9th March 2016) for Syria on the resumption of UN peace talks and to draw attention on what was to be the fifth anniversary of the Syrian conflict on March 15 (two days after Ankara).

A few years back, after a Holocaust Memorial Day (HMD) service, as I rubbed shoulders with the great and the good as they munched the sandwiches and drank their tea and coffee, I was drawn into a conversation with some of what I had, until then, considered to be some of the brighter people of our community. The discussion centred on the awfulness of genocide and how events like HMD were, "So very distressing."

One of those in the group made the observation, "Thank goodness we don't have genocide anymore!"

Without thinking I jumped in and pointed to the atrocities that were Rwanda, Bosnia and Darfur and the genocide that surrounds us in recent history - that are going on today. The comment that came back from the, until then assumed 'bright' person, shook me to the core:

"Oh yes, but when we said 'Never Again' we meant in Europe!"

Thankfully, rather than make a scene I chose to walk away - but I often wonder, when I see prayers for Paris, Belgium and places close to us in Europe whether singling one place out for prayer whilst ignoring the plight of others is really communicating something positive about us.

After all - didn't Jesus tell us that even the wicked pray for their friends?

I was drawn to Matthew 5. 43-48 and the words:

 “You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall love your neighbour and hate your enemy.’
   But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you,
   so that you may be sons of your Father who is in heaven. 
   For he makes his sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the just and on the 
   unjust.

   For if you love those who love you, what reward do you have?
   Do not even the tax collectors do the same?
   And if you greet only your brothers, what more are you doing than others? 
   Do not even the Gentiles do the same?
   You therefore must be perfect, as your heavenly Father is perfect."

Now please don't misunderstand me - I am as grateful to see prayers for Syria, Paris and Brussels as I am sad to see that there is a need for them. BUT  we need to have balance and perspective.

As I write this I see that there have been 96 terror attacks around the world.

They have taken place in Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Places that are just not as 'sexy' in terms of media attention as Europe and perhaps Israel and Palestine (for they are old news now aren't they?).

So when we pray - pray for the whole world - Please.

ps. Not a pop at the C of E or anyone - just a point as to how easy it gets to become just a little myopic.

Greece - A Lesson from Counselling?

Many years back when I was still pretty new in the wonderful world of counselling I was passed a couple who had agreed to separate but were also asked, by a court, to look at some form of marriage counselling which was why they were there. As we progressed one of the pair began to set goals and targets for the other. It was simple, should they meet the goal the prospect of reconciliation increased and this was a sign of their commitment to the continuation of the relationship.

As each goal or task was set the other party agreed that they would have a go at meeting it and after a few weeks we reached the stage where the other party had to agree that indeed, their other half had not only met the requirements but had perhaps exceeded them. What became obvious was that although they were changing there was no intent on the part of the 'demanding' partner to accept any need for change or modification of their behaviour on their side of the relationship.

Eventually (week four if I recall correctly) it came to pass that, with yet another demand being placed on the weaker of the two, that the stage was reached where they had to say, "Sorry, I can't give any more!" The result of this was to have the consistently demanding, and stronger positioned person, throw up their hands and proclaim that there was no way that they could ever continue the relationship and with that they left.

A few weeks later I met the same person with their new partner and another person I knew from a different setting who gave me a bit of a strange look (which at the time I thought nothing of). I realised why I'd got the look a few weeks later when, having bumped into them, I found out that they were the cousin of the 'demanding' party in my attempt at marriage counselling who informed me that the 'new' partner had been in the background for a number of months and was the reason the previous partner had been expelled. Not only that but the cousin had been confided in regarding the marriage and had been told that they were going to use the counselling sessions to put more and more demands and increasing pressure on their 'ex' in the hope that they'd fold their hand and leave the marriage. The 'refusal' to change had been all that was waited for as it gave them the ability to tell everyone how their former partner had been unwilling to change and how that had caused the break-up.

But apparently everyone who knew of the other person realised what was going on and although they'd gotten what they wanted in that they could claim to be the innocent party they also lost most of the friends who'd known of the person in the background.

The reason for this story? I get the feeling that those who shake the change in the European Union are doing the same with Greece. Every time they ask for an assurance the Greek government debates and agrees to meet whatever demand is placed upon them, even though they know the Greek people are being pressed harder and harder and that the rule of law is becoming thin in an increasing desperate people. But the time will surely come when the Greek nation says, "No More!" and a parting of the ways will come - which is just what I think certain nations in Europe want.

Divorce but with Greece bearing the blame.

Politics and hypocrisy - sadly just different words for the same thing!

EU Transaction Tax

Revenue-generation or revenge?

I was most interested by an early morning news item regarding the proposed transaction tax. Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the EU Commission, urged a 'yes' in the vote today in the German parliament regarding the bailout of Greece. Where Merkel sees the opportunity for German to accentuate its control and supremacy within Europe (a growing trend perhaps, I understand that conquest by finance is the preferred means of conquest these days?) others merely see more of Germany's being thrown down the drain trying to support 'waster nations' like Greece.

Barroso accentuated the need for the transaction tax (and Eurobonds) as a means of generating something in excess of fifty billion Euros, money that could be used to bail out faltering economies. Of course, those EU members who do not subscribe to the Euro are less inclined to see themselves paying out money when when they know there's nothing in it for them (prudent thinking or a lack of generosity? Then again we'd only probably be expecting generosity in Christian circles.).

One financial expert calculated that the money raised by a transaction tax would be nearer ten billion Euros and estimated the cost of collecting the money to be around twelve! When this was pointed out, the response was that it was more about 'making a statement' and 'making the bankers pay' than just bringing in money! The revenge issue is something the mindless moronic readership of some of the British rags will applaud when they read it this morning, after all it's revenge and that has to be good, doesn't it?

So we have Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal all swaying in the breeze and whilst we read about powerplays and posturing across the board there are people in Greece who have to choose whether they eat or buy essential medicines. There are blind and otherwise disadvantaged people who have lost benefits and now struggle to exist and we are looking more like the third world in the West.

We have truly lost our way and have let our possessions, the culture of self and the desire for revenge rule us and in return have seen any sense of equity, justice and mercy depart.

Pax

Europe - 'a pathetic and impotent' force

This is how Europe has been portrayed this morning.

Fearing that they might be drawn into a conflict in North Africa, many of the European nations are content to stand by and watch Gaddafi's forces use air power to suppress an uprising of the general populace against forty-one years of oppression. Talk of 'human shields' (a contravention of Article 51.7 which states that the presence of civilians "shall not be used to... shield military objectives from attacks or to shield, favour or impede military operations" require someone to act, but the weak and cowardly European forces fear another Iraq and so refrain from doing the right thing.

The bombing of civillians is prohibited (see articles 22 - 25 1923 draft rules on aerial warfare) and yet we see this taking place. Where there are combatants in places where non-engaged civilian populace is to be found, then the rule is that you don't bomb! But we stand by and watch, tutting and shaking our heads, yet do nothing in response.

I am all too aware that Gaddafi would make capital out of any incursion by Western forces, but with the call from the Arab League for a no fly zone we have had the opportunity to support the forces of nations surrounding Libya in imposing such a zone. Mind you, I recall that the same thing was in place for about a dozen years and that ended up with an invasion. But we are looking at minimising civilian casualties and not effecting regime change (another contravention of the conventions).

Obviously Russia and China will veto anything that sees people acting against the right of nations to do pretty much as they wish under the terms of local politics. Understandable perhaps given their amazing histories of human rights breaches themselves, after all they would want people to come a knocking either! But whilst we stand around, taking moral high ground and yet stopping short of doing anything about the situation.

To quote German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle: "We do not want to get sucked into a war in North Africa and we would not like to step on a slippery slope where we all are, at the end, in a war." Again, if action is carried out by the very member nations of the same Arab League Libya is a member of, the potential for escalation and claims of a Western invasion in search of Libya's oil would be hollow.

It is obvious that there is no political pressure that can be brought to bear on Libya, after all Gaddafi has stuck two fingers up against many of the Western world, funding, training and equipping terrorists and acting as it wants and the world has done nothing (except perhaps sell them arms!!). If these people are meant to be politicians, then they should exercise the abilities they have and if they can't then other means must be employed. The fear of being 'sucked into another war' is surely fallacious if the right means are engaged.

We don't want a war, and shouldn't engage in one, but how can we have any integrity when we (the world at large) shake our heads and yet do nothing?

And if we see Gaddafi quell the uprising against him and see him retain power, how many of those whose hands are stayed will be dealing (albeit perhaps secretly) because he has oil. Are we not in danger of (once more) rewarding evil?