BBC Politics - Will Christians Swing the 2010 election?

Having just read an interesting piece by BBC News political reporter, Justin Parkinson I thought it was worth publisihing it here as it sits so well after my earlier piece today:

"Tony Blair's spokesman Alastair Campbell famously once said the prime minister didn't "do God" when talking to the media. Religious pronouncements were kept to a minimum, for fear of risking the broad political support for the New Labour project.

Mr Campbell's simple words illustrate how Christianity is generally treated at Westminster. Explicit mention of religion is seen as "un-British", a bit "American" and a "turn-off" to the electorate. But, with a closely fought election in the offing and a desperate fight taking place for marginal seats, might candidates become more open about their beliefs if it means a few more votes?

The preacher Canon J John, a prominent figure within the evangelical community who wants Christians to become more politically involved, urges his fellow believers to "do our best to find out about our local candidates". He adds: "We might want to ask whether they are genuinely committed to moral values or do they simply adopt whatever is the current fashionable view? Does the candidate place their party's ideology above everything else? Would they be prepared to vote against the party line on moral grounds? "Are they grappling with the bigger issues or are they simply interested in small-scale, day-to-day matters? Perhaps, above all, we should ask whether potential candidates seek to be elected in order to serve their self-interest or the interest of others." The implication of Canon John's words is that, to satisfy a Christian voter, they should put morality above party.

What electoral value is in this for would-be MPs?

James Panton, a politics lecturer at Oxford University, said: "We live in a society which allows the free exchange of views and it's obviously the case that church leaders want to be involved in shaping the views of members." He added: "Across society as a whole my view is that it's not a statistically relevant phenomenon at elections. There aren't enough people like that, whose Christian views are going to be vital to how they choose their MP.
"But it's possible that it may be more important in a marginal seat which has a big support base for a highly politicised Christian organisation." In the US religion plays a large part in the funding and organisation of politics. In the UK it is less influential. For Canon John, though, is not a voice in the wilderness.

The Westminster 2010 Declaration, signed by former Archbishop of Canterbury Lord Carey and Cardinal O'Brien, the leader of Catholics in Scotland, has some strong advice for the one in 10 or so people thought to attend church every week. Christians should work to ensure "religious liberty and freedom of conscience are unequivocally protected against interference by the state and other threats", while they "will not be intimidated by any cultural or political power into silence or acquiescence".

The declaration goes on: "We call upon all those in UK positions of leadership, responsibility and influence to pledge to respect, uphold and protect the right of Christians to hold these beliefs and to act according to Christian conscience." Its website encourages voters to e-mail parliamentary candidates to find out their views. More than 30,000 people have backed the declaration.

Paul Woolley, director of the Christian think-tank Theos, said: "The fact that the election looks very close will give a certain relevance to the question of whether Christians can influence voting." He added that, despite a commonly held view that British public life is becoming ever-more secular, parties had been "working hard to make inroads into faith-based communities and organisations".

Will faith influence your vote?

Conservative leader David Cameron's call for a "Big Society", including government working with voluntary and faith groups, is one example. Prime Minister Gordon Brown makes frequent references to the "moral compass" he inherited from his clergyman father.
Mr Woolley said: "We did some research last year looking at the rhetoric of Gordon Brown and others in their key speeches and the extent to which they used Christian or theological or biblical language." With Gordon Brown it clearly colours his narrative. He draws on it to speak.
"Similarly David Cameron conference speech last year - there were parts that were strikingly biblical in their rhythm. Sections seemed like the Sermon on the Mount."
Mr Woolley added: "I would say politicians are more religious in their rhetoric than they were. Harold Wilson used to remove words from speeches which came naturally to him. He didn't want people to see him as using religion. "These days people are talking about it more. We definitely have politicians far more inclined to visit churches or Christian festivals than we would in the past." Indeed, the main parties are trying to mobilise the "God vote". Might Alastair Campbell's advice be modified today?

Zoe Dixon, chairman of the Liberal Democrat Christian Forum, said: "If you have a candidate who is a strong Christian you are going to go to churches to try to get people to vote for you."
She added: "The difference it could make would be in a marginal seat. Everyone should elect the person they think would make the best MP for their area, almost regardless of party.
"We shouldn't get side-tracked by the national agenda. Certainly we try to mobilise the Christian vote in our favour in constituencies." And, of course, election hustings are often held in church halls. Stephen Beers, of the Christian Socialist Movement, said: "Anyone at all could be there, but it's quite likely to have a fair number of Christians among the audience."
He added: "Groups like ours are trying to influence policies; we are not forcing our views... Voters should consider parties as a whole, look at the whole political platform."

Elizabeth Berridge, chairman of the Conservative Christian Fellowship, thinks low turnout at elections means Christians play an important role, as they are more likely to vote than most people - with about 80% doing so. She said: "It could have a big impact. In some seats the church meeting is the only one candidates are asked to attend.
"At this juncture, following the expenses scandal, Christians are going to be concerned with how someone comes across, whether they are genuine, what their character is like.
"They might disagree with the candidate's views, but if his or her character seems good, they might hold sway."

If leading politicians do not mention God very often, the A-words - "atheism" and "agnosticism" - are something of a taboo at Westminster. So it was surprising that, shortly after becoming Lib Dem leader in 2007, Nick Clegg replied "No" when asked whether he believed. He later modified his remark, saying he was not an "active believer" but had "enormous respect" for those who were, adding that his wife was Catholic and that his children were being brought up under this faith.

Mr Woolley, of Theos, said: "I think the original effect of Mr Clegg's words was that people could appreciate he was being straightforward with us. People don't like people pretending to be what they are not. "But Mr Clegg felt he needed to qualify what he was saying. I mean, why would you do that unless there was a political imperative? He was trying to assure people."
Parties, by their nature, are broad coalitions, with members holding sometimes widely different views. Westminster wisdom has it that maintaining discipline, and alienating as few potential supporters as possible, will aid success.

Over the last few years, explicitly faith-based political parties, tired of compromise, have featured more prominently at elections. A spokesman for the Christian Peoples Alliance, which is putting up 17 general election candidates, said: "The big parties are trying to pursue big-tent politics, looking to reach out to the largest possible spectrum. That's the politics of the last century. We are building for the politics of tomorrow." He added: "There is a compromised moral relativism which is endemic in British politics. The moral compass has to be pointed north if we are to get away from big-tent politics."

The alliance harbours long-term ambitions of emulating Christian Democrats in much of northern Europe, where they are effectively the main conservative parties. The spokesman said that policies like cutting inner-city poverty, restricting bankers' bonuses and giving financial help to mothers and fathers who want to care for their children, rather than return to work, would prove popular in the long term. Many voters, beyond just Christians, would see these issues in moral terms, he added. Even if they take a few hundred votes from one of the major parties in a marginal constituency, the alliance or its rival Christian Party, which is hoping to field more than 100 candidates, could swing things.

The two parties, which were in a pact at the time, gained almost a quarter of a million votes at last year's European election. Christian Party leader George Hargreaves said: "Most of our general election candidates are in marginal seats. We can have a king-maker effect, depending on what message we want to send out. "We could say to our rivals 'A plague on both your houses'. We could say 'A plague on one house or another'. Or we could say nothing about our rivals and just put our own message across. "We will look at other parties' candidates in full to see what they stand for. That's democracy in action."

They are encouraging Christians to look at politics through the prism of their own beliefs. If the electoral sums on 6 May add up, "doing God" might not be a rarity in British politics for much longer."